Note from the MD: Global market movements lift ASX, but local consumer and investor sentiment bruised

The ASX has been bolstered by economic support measures to help China’s ailing property sector, as well as hopes the US central bank’s monetary policy tightening cycle is drawing to a close.  

The ASX has been bolstered by economic support measures to help China’s ailing property sector, as well as hopes the US central bank’s monetary policy tightening cycle is drawing to a close.

US markets ended higher overnight, led by gains in financial shares as investors await key inflation data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) decision to leave rates on hold last week didn’t exactly set the ASX alight, with bond markets moving shortly after to price in a possible third interest rate increase to a peak of around 4.71%.

Despite the RBA’s rate pause, consumer confidence amongst mortgage holders this week fell to its lowest level since the survey began in 2008, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.

The aggressive monetary tightening at home and abroad has seen Australian investors the most bearish on equities and property in at least four years, pulling $2.8 billion from fund managers amid concerns about a global recession.

According to the data compiled by global funds network Calastone, equities accounted for $1.65 billion of the net outflows between April and June, while $1.2 billion was from actively managed funds.

Meanwhile, support for China’s soft property market has helped lift iron ore prices and bolstered local mining stocks.

Despite the consumer spending squeeze, the COVID-19 tourism recovery continues to defy broader trends. In fact, Qantas shares have increased more than 40% over the past year.

Back to the ASX 200, all 11 industry sectors finished in the green yesterday, gaining 1.5% after setting a new 50-day low.

Megaport Limited and Bellevue Gold Limited were top performers, up 33.7% and 15.2% respectively.

Leaving with some positive news; and while consumer sentiment remains dour, business is more buoyant.

The business survey from National Australia Bank shows Australian business conditions steadied at ‘above average’ levels in June, despite their costs rising higher.

The XJO has bounced higher after a large fall which saw it break through both 50 and 200 day moving averages. The index came close to the long term support at 6946 and found some strength which has helped it climb higher. The XJO continues to push higher and has crossed its 200-day moving average looking to test and cross the 50-day Moving average if it is to continue its upwards trajectory.

With the index moving higher it has seen implied volatility move higher with IV rank of 25. As a direct result volatility is high enough for investors to sell some volatility. However there with higher volatility traders are to expect larger index movements.

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