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Note from the MD: Six-day rally pushes year-to-date ASX performance to positive territory

March 30, 2022

Note from the MD: Six-day rally pushes year-to-date ASX performance to positive territory

Last night saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg deliver his fourth federal budget and already reams have been written about its contents, especially with an election looming and living costs starting to put pressure on Australians’ hip pockets.

Last night saw Treasurer Josh Frydenberg deliver his fourth federal budget and already reams have been written about its contents, especially with an election looming and living costs starting to put pressure on Australians’ hip pockets.

The prospect of tax cuts and stimulus measures seemed to reinvigorate some investors, with the benchmark ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) recording six consecutive days of gains in the run-up to Budget night.

Yesterday’s 51.9-point gain pushed the market to its second-highest close for the calendar year – enough to push the market back into positive territory for 2022.

Futures markets are pointing to further gains today too, after talks of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine saw markets in Europe and the US climb. 

The XJO has had another strong week gaining over 100 points, and if the market can hold its current price level, will have risen for seven consecutive days. The market broke through a major resistance level (7465) on the open this morning after closing at this resistance in yesterday’s session.

We are now seeing the next level of resistance around the 7530 to 7550 level, then around 7600 to 7630. The current major support level is around 7340, with additional support levels 7400 and 7465. We may see the 7465 level become a major support level in the coming days if the market continues its recent bullish run.

As for last night’s Budget, that’s unlikely to greatly influence the ASX in any meaningful way today – many of the key policies and handouts had already been leaked or hinted at in the run-up to last night’s big show.

Some of the policies that were previously flagged included a reduction to the fuel excise and one-off cash handouts of $250 for some demographics, including pensioners.

Both of these measures were part of a broader push to help Australians cope with higher living costs but many commentators are already debating whether these ‘sugar hits’ will have a diabetic impact on the country’s longer-term finances.

Taken all together, last night’s Budget includes $8.6 billion in temporary relief measures and will guarantee we remain in a structural deficit for several years to come.

Even so, the $79.8 billion deficit outlined in Tuesday’s figures – forecast to grow to $225 billion by 2025-26 – is still an improvement on last year’s numbers.

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