After wiping out some of Monday’s gains yesterday, the ASX 200 looks set to climb today after a positive session in US markets overnight.

Fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike – which is still expected to be announced in the next 24 hours – initially hurt Wall Street, especially the Nasdaq, on Monday night.

However, last night we saw much of that reverse, helped along in part by dips in the oil price offering a reprieve from the higher prices we saw in the immediate wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

All eyes are now on the ASX, which is expected to follow the US’s lead in trading today.

The market has traded sideways over the past week, in line with price action since 25th  February, but with some higher volatility in its intraday movements. The market is currently trading below the 50-day MA, which may hinder any breakout move from the current sideways trading range.

Overall, it looks like the 6980-7000 support band is a major support level going forward. Commodities have pulled back with gold front month futures pulling back from $2000/oz to $1930/oz and iron ore front month futures falling from $151.10/t to $145.40/t.

New ABS figures show the spread of the Omicron variant at the start of the year weighed on business turnover, which in January dropped in 10 of the 13 industry sectors tracked by the bureau – though interestingly, almost every sector recorded higher turnover for January 2022 than the same month in the previous year.

The Reserve Bank noted as well that labour conditions are tighter now than they have been since 2008, with unemployment at its lowest level in 14 years – though wages growth is only sitting at its pre-pandemic levels.

And speaking of the RBA, how could we forget the shock departure of deputy governor Guy Debelle, which was announced this week too?

Many expected to see Debelle eventually take the reins from Philip Lowe once the long-serving governor leaves his post.

Elsewhere in the world, the news cycle is really heating up. Russia looks likely to default on its foreign debts in a process that could trigger a recession, China is bleeding capital as investors baulk at rising COVID case numbers and the country’s confusing stance on Russia, and US Treasury yields have spiked.

Never a dull moment on markets, I suppose, but it’s important as we head into this confusing and noisy period to maintain a cool head and really think about your portfolios.

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