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Note from the MD: Time for action as 47th Parliament opens

July 27, 2022

Note from the MD: Time for action as 47th Parliament opens

Australia’s 47th Parliament commenced yesterday, marking the first time in nine years that Labor MPs have sat on the right-hand side of the lower-house chamber.

Australia’s 47th Parliament commenced yesterday, marking the first time in nine years that Labor MPs have sat on the right-hand side of the lower-house chamber.

Women now make up 38% of the House of Representatives and 57% of the Senate – a record for both chambers. Let’s see if this helps Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s stated goal of restoring civility to Parliament.

And they will need all the help they can get as they face a mountain of challenging issues, including inflation, the economy and the budget; the energy crisis; how to deal with COVID-19 as well as foot and mouth disease; relations with China, the First Nations Voice to Parliament and climate change.

It has been two months since Labor won the federal election, and the window within which problems can be sheeted to the Morrison government has begun closing.

In the era of ever-shortening news cycles and attention spans, people expect quick results, and the time Labor has to deliver on election promises – lower power bills, higher real wages, productivity increases and more – will be limited.

While the Government has the numbers required to pass legislation in the Lower House, the Senate will present more of a challenge, as Labor is well short of the required majority in the Upper House.

And the pressure is on already: today will see the release of latest inflation numbers, tomorrow Treasurer Jim Chalmers will provide his update on Australia’s budget position and economic outlook, and next Tuesday the RBA is widely expected to hike the cash rate again.

The XJO looks ready to react to any news on the horizon. With cash rates expected to rise and potential negative real GDP growth in the US, we will be watching for signs of a sell-off, especially as the index hits its 50-day MA from the underside, which may also contribute to the selling pressure.

Implied volatility is relatively low with IV at 15.4% and IV rank of 31, which makes buying protection relatively cost-effective. We expect support around 6540, then again around 6450, with a potential third support level around 6340. However, if the market rallies through the 50-day MA, we see resistance around the 6950 level, then again around 7000.

Chalmers has already warned that Australians should expect the economic climate to become worse before it becomes better, and the nation is watching our new government closely for signs of how they will lead us on to better times.

The looming threat of natural disasters was also brought into focus with the devastating Queensland and NSW floods. In recent reports, it was estimated that natural disasters in Australia claim more than 80 lives and cost the government $18.2 billion annually.

On Friday at 1pm (AEST), we’re hosting a special investor briefing with Dr Gerard Dyson, managing director of Spectur Limited (ASX: SP3) – an Australian AI surveillance company that helps protect communities from floods, bushfires, tsunamis, shark attacks and vandalism. Click here to secure your spot.

Reach Corporate provides Corporate Advisory Services, including managing investor communications on behalf of Spectur Limited and will receive fees for its services.

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